Whee! I hit a few limits today!

Yesterday, both John Hyland and Jordan analysed the EUR/JPY trade I was in - the verdict, I'm using the Fibonacci retracement, but then I'm placing my stops too tight - I need to allow a one-range or two-range space for the trade to play out.

So last night, during class, I shorted the EUR/JPY again. Made a small, but delightful profit. This morning, I awoke to find that the EUR/JPY was now on an uptrend. Given that I had the exact same Fibonacci retracement beautifully depicted on the hourly chart, I took that trade long.

Here's the analysis:

Hourly timeframe:

I got in at the green circle at 6 a.m. : bought 10 micro-mini lots at 156.5 with a stop lower than the 0% Fibonacci line at 154.4 and a limit above the 50% line at 157.05. I should probably have trusted that the trade would continue past the 61.8% line at least, maybe even past the 78.6%, but I didn't want to take that chance, so this is the trade I took.

Voila: A few hours later, at work, I got notified that something got exercised. I checked - for a thrilling change, it was the limit, locking in a nice little profit. Of course, I could have had a nicer profit if I'd trusted my analysis, but I wasn't sure that this was not just a short retracement. In the bigger picture, I'm sure all the trading activity since Monday was nothing but a short retracement, too, but this is the timeframe I'm trading on, and I like the way this trade has worked out for me.

Of course, I'm going to keep watching this EUR/JPY currency pair on the hourly timeframe. If my analysis is correct, then, assuming the current dip is a mere retracement, we're in for another healthy uptick: all the way to almost 162.00 - that's where the 78.6% line is for the larger-scale M-to-M Fibonacci retracement on this hourly chart as you see below:




So, I'll be watching this trade this evening. If it starts to trade significantly above 159.5, then I'm going to go long this trade again and set a limit just below 162.00. Let's see whether that plays out as currently planned.

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While that is all going on, I'm also analysing the EUR/USD for a potential trade.

On the hourly timeframe, I'm seeing what looks like a nice opportunity for a kiss trade:

Unfortunately, when I tried to confirm on the 15-minute time-frame, it's got the parabolic SAR above the candlesticks, indicating a temporary down-trend:



So I guess I'm just going to sit here and watch this currency pair and wait for the parabolic SAR to tell me it's okay to go in and buy and then wait for a nice long run upward.

I hate waiting.

ARGH - Stopped out AGAIN!!!

So here I am, spotting a sweet trade on EUR/JPY .... one that should have paid off about 300 pips!

Here is the trade:

I got in at the circled spot on Monday, August 27th. It is _still_ heading down, as I'd predicted.

However, I keep getting stopped out! I've been chasing this trade since MONDAY! I get in, make a profit, move my stop up closer, and BANG!!! I'm out of the trade in a momentary upswing. I'm sick of that. Today, especially - I had an entry stop that got me in at 157.4, and anticipated a sweet run down to 154.90 - well, that run down is definitely happening right now, as you'll see if you double-click on the chart - however, as usual, I got stopped out a little after I got in. So now, late, late, late in the game, I'm finally in this trade again. Shorted 10 micro mini lots at 155.41, with a stop at 158.3 and a limit at 151.6 - I'm anticipating that it will hit 151.5 (the 78.6% mark on the Fibonacci retracement) and may still continue downward depending on how much support it meets at that Major support point.

I'm frustrated at the stopped-out-ness of this trade, but encouraged by the fact that I called it right in terms of identifying the trade!

I guess it's all part of the learning game - no point getting frustrated.

Chasing a trade

It's now just past 10:30 p.m., EDT. After a long day, I got home to check the trade. During the day, I'd been tracking it occasionally, and had raised the stop to 158.35 to lock in some profit - I did. Got stopped out on one of the upswings .... and had to watch the EUR/JPY slowly drift down exactly as predicted! Oh well ... have FAITH in the trade!

Here's what the chart looks like right now.



Okay, so I'm chasing this trade. But I do believe there is a LOT of potential for it to keep going down to the 154.8 or so that would be the 78.6% mark on the longer Fibonacci retracement. So I took the trade. Again. Shorted 5 micro-mini lots at 157.67, with a stop at 158.10 and a limit at 156.35. As it drifts down again, I'll try to push the limit lower. And this time, I'm leaving the stop untouched. No point stopping myself out of a trade that I think will work!

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Also this morning, I got a notification from FXInsights.com that they have generated a Buy signal on EUR/USD between 1.3650 and 1.3640, and again between 1.3620 and 1.3600. So now I'm curious as to what could have triggered that Buy signal of theirs. If it looks like a reasonable trade, I'm likely to get into it tomorrow.

The Daily chart is not yet showing the 10 EMA crossing over the 50 EMA or the 25 EMA, although the 25 EMA has crossed up over the 50 EMA.

On the hourly timeframe below, the indicators are actually to short this, rather than being a BUY signal. I don't think I'm understanding this trade pattern yet.

Let's look at the 15-minute timeframe:


Here, again, I'm not seeing what's causing a strong BUY signal.

So I'm going to look for the Kiss trade on these same timeframes.

Daily:

Hourly:

15-minute:



Hmm, no. I'm still not seeing why they want to buy, other than that the daily timeframe shows a distinct upswing today compared to last Friday. Is that enough reason to make FXInsights.com generate a buy signal? I don't know. Should I buy just because they say so? No. Doesn't make sense to me at all. I'll wait until I see something I recognise.

Beginning to learn the Kiss Trade

So, last week, Jordan taught the class about the Kiss trade - I've been looking for an opportunity since then, but haven't really spotted one. This morning, though, it looks like I might have an opportunity here on the EUR/JPY.

On the hourly timeframe:

On the daily timeframe:

And finally, on the 15-minute timeframe:


Adding in Fibonacci retracement lines, it looks like we could be in for a good opportunity to short this pair:

If I'm reading this right, it's indicating that this pair may head downwards in a couple of big waves: one down to the 78.6 9 (close to a green up-arrow) at 157.28, which is also clustered with the 38.2 line from the larger-scale Fibonacci retracement from 153.36 to 159.69; the second, continuing further down to 154.65, where again we have a cluster of Fibonacci lines: the 161.8 of the smaller retracement and the 78.6 of the larger one.

I'm taking this trade, even though it was only a little black downward arrow.

Why am I taking the trade? Okay, still because I want it to do well. But also, at least a little, because it looks like the Forex Profit system that Jordan was talking about, the Kiss trade. I really want to try this trade out, and I guess I'm tired of waiting for a red arrow to confirm this is a good trade. Not smart.

Zooming out on the hourly timeframe:


There is a definite red arrow there on the hourly timeframe: maybe I shouldn't be mixing and matching, but I want this trade. On the daily, it does indicate a bearish market, so I think (hope?) that it's safe to take this trade.

Note that on the hourly, it's also done a complete price pivot and has already tested the failure line and bounced off it to continue downward:

I'm getting in at market price on a short: I placed a trade to sell 10 micro-mini lots at 158.80, with a stop at 159.30 (just in case I'm wrong on the direction) and a limit above the 78.6/38.2 mark, at 157.40.

Now I'm off to work: let's see how this trade does today.