Mark Joyner is giving away a course on blogging!

I'm evaluating a multi-media course on blogging from the folks at Simpleology. For a while, they're letting you snag it for free if you post about it on your blog.

It covers:

• The best blogging techniques.
• How to get traffic to your blog.
• How to turn your blog into money.

I'll let you know what I think once I've had a chance to check it out. Meanwhile, go grab yours while it's still free.

Today's Atomic Mind Bombs from Mark Joyner had an interesting title: "Confession - I'm a blogging moron"! Of course, that caught my attention - since BlogRush keeps giving me dismal statistics on my blog postings, I had been trying to figure out how I could improve my blogging skills, and this looked like Mark was saying he, too, had had problems when he started.

So I checked it out. Well, it turns out that not only has Mark learned from his mistakes, he's also decided to create a course on blogging. Hmm - sounds great! How much is it going to set me back? Apparently nothing! For now, the course is free if you mention it in one of your own blogs. Hmm - is it worth trying out the course? Of course it is!!!

I've been a Simpleology student for a couple of months now, and it's truly moved me from stuck to overachiever - I've lost my day job, but am pulling in good streams of income from my businesses now, and it's never a pain to "get around to it" - all the good things are happening faster than I can imagine, and most of the credit goes to one simple thing: getting my Daily Praxis done in the Simpleology Web Cockpit.

Was this post a plug for Simpleology? I guess it's turned out to be one. But what I really wanted to say was: if you've got the time to blog, you've got to learn to do it right. And every single one of Mark's courses that I've tried (Simpleology-101, Simpleology-102 and the Word of Mouth Transformation course) provide way more value than they cost - Simpleology-101 is actually free as well, if you want to get a quick taste of it!

So, everyone, go ahead and sign up for Mark's blogging course ... I have no doubt it's going to be another excellent resource!

Cheers,
Maya

The GBP/USD is moving up again!

So, here I am, wide awake after class tonight - it was an options class, lots of good stuff, but I'm still faithful to my first love. So far, anyway.

My account is in draw-down mode right now. So I'm being fairly careful about my trades, not trading unless I've got strong indicators, and not trading more than I want to lose - so my stops are tight, and the upside is carefully calculated before I enter a trade these days.

Tonight, I'm looking at the GBP/USD - nice little return to the continuing bullish trend there, I think. So, here's the analysis:

Hourly:
15-minute:
Daily:
So, all things considered, that looks like it's ready to head up now. Not in a steep curve, but on a gentle slope.

Got in to that trade - now I'm seeing some fairly enthusiastic swings. :) Let's see how this one plays out! I think the GBP/USD can easily hit 2.0890, so I'm setting my limit just below that - 2.0890 is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement line on this chart - another psychological barrier there. So I'll watch how it does. Hopefully, I won't get stopped out too early!

Wild rides, queasy stomachs!

That's what this past week has been like! It seemed almost as if every single trade opportunity I spotted decided to change its mind the minute I got in. :)

Lesson learned: watch, confirm, don't be in a hurry!

This morning is a prime example.

I have been wanting to get into the GBP/USD, but have been waiting for the right indicators to show up when I am actually trading - i.e., not 5 hours before and now it's too late to jump in, because it could go either way.

So this morning, I woke up, turned on the laptop, and looked at GBP/USD. On the hourly, there was a sweet set-up - the 3 and 5 have just bounced off the 13! YES. And it looked like what Jordan calls a Shaq (yes, after Shaquille O'Neal) ... a HUGE candle. So, confirmed on the 15-minute and the daily - both indicate bullish - jump in, place that trade!

Ten minutes later, here's what the charts look like:

Hourly:
Daily:
15-minute:


Yes, the pretty blue circle is where I got in - we're talking a 50+ pip move to the downside as soon as I got in! But, the fact that that Shaq formed at all (I believe) indicates that there are what Jordan calls GBP "troops" just waiting to get in. Presumably the steep drop was because some were taking profit right away? Or something.

Okay, I admit, I'm hanging in this trade simply because I want it to succeed. I have my stop set far enough that it hasn't been triggered yet. And right now, actually, as I write this, it seems I may have read the sentiment correctly so far ... we're showing a slight uptick from that low ... it's only off about 30 pips from my entry!

The updated 15-minute chart:

I suspect this will be a bumpy ride for a while yet, so I'm going to watch this trade very carefully for the next hour or so before I have to leave and get a life and all that kind of fun stuff. Or maybe not - maybe I'll just try to have faith in my stop! :)

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Update: got stopped out just a couple of minutes later ... 60 pips. :)
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The lesson in this is: if you spot what looks like a HUGE candle forming, have a little patience: it may fizzle out just as fast as it formed!

But, as the title of this post says, that causes some upheavals in your gut, believe me.

The flip side? If I'd walked away from the laptop as soon as I set up the trade, I may never have seen this behaviour and wouldn't have needed to experience the swing as viscerally as I did. So, again, have faith in your analysis and don't sit and watch the pot - it doesn't need your help to get to boiling point. The market is going to do what it's going to do, and you don't have to baby-sit it!

Happy trading!

Jumping in is not always a good idea!

Since I didn't take any trades last night, I was, predictably, eager to get started this morning. So, I looked at the GBP ... nice little uptick there on the hourly.
And, also on the daily, it seems!
Well, that's it! I just jumped in ... bought at 2.0392 with a stop at 2.0367 and the limit set to 2.0429. That allows me a 25% loss potential, versus a 50% possible upside.

And then I watched in disbelief as, within minutes, I lost 20% of that stake! I may still break even or even head into positive territory, but right now I'm taking no bets on that. Wait a minute. I forgot to check on the 4-hour timeframe - not a good idea.
Okay, that explains a few things - it's distinctly bearish on the 4-hour timeframe.

Lesson I don't seem to learn: Confirm, confirm, confirm - before you place your trade, not just when writing up the trade log. Better yet, write the trade log before you place your trade, include the exit points!

No, I'm not ducking out of that trade. I'll let it play out. If I lose, it will be well deserved! Might as well learn the hard way if I refuse to do it the easy way, right?

Update:Yes, I got stopped out. Was there ever any doubt about that? Locked in a nice little 25% loss on that trade. Maybe that'll teach me not to get trigger-happy as soon as I wake up. :)

Off the diet! And here's to binge-ing!

Whee! I asked Jordan last night whether I could now start taking more than one trade a day. He actually said YES!

So, of course, what do I do? I go overboard!

The previous night, Jordan had mentioned fractals. That got me thinking: fractals = repeating patterns, right? Right. So maybe I'd been looking at too short-term of a time-frame. Time to stop "not seeing the forest for the trees", I thought.

So, I looked at the EUR/JPY. On a 15-minute time frame, I really couldn't see much of a fractal pattern, although I definitely can see trends and can recognise the patterns like the 3/5/13 emas and the pivots. But maybe there's more. So, off I went to look at the hourly time frame. Not really seeing a fractal there either. But wait, what if I zoom out a bit more? Aha - something is certainly happening. So, I zoomed out even more. At the 3 month level, I finally could see the pattern clearly ... wending its way in a broad trend, moving up relatively fast to form a peak, then slowing down, doing up to a 60% retracement, then zooming up again to form another peak, slightly higher than the previous one, and so on.
We may have a winner here, I thought. So, just for kicks, I looked at the 4-hour timeframe
and the daily timeframe as well.
Yep, as expected, that pattern did hold true on the higher timeframes as well. Okay, time to take the trade. Got in at 165.91, with a stop at 165.13 and a limit at 167 ... that's more than a 100-pip move if it works. I know the account will likely be in draw-down for part of this trade, just because of the pattern. But the beauty is that I'm getting in during one of the valleys rather than at a peak. I'm anticipating that the next true peak will be a little above 167, but resistance should kick in at the change of the whole number.

That being done, I idly looked at the USD/JPY hourly chart, just in case the two have similar fractals. I think I've noticed both these currency pairs trending together before, so maybe their fractal patterns are similar, too?
Hmph. There's a vague similarity, but the two pairs are not actually trending together. Well, that's another comfortable assumption demolished. However, what I'm seeing on the 4-hour chart
is a very identifiable, obviously repeating pattern. And it again looks like I'm at the bottom of a valley ... good upside potential in that trading range I've drawn there. Confirmed it on the daily chart as well, just to be on the safe side:
So, yes, you guessed right: I took the trade. Got in at 117.22, with a limit at 118.5 (yes, I do actually believe I could see a 100-plus pip move here!) and a stop at 116.85 (a one-range stop, as Jordan calls it - placed just below the nearest support level identified by the "S"). That's a potential 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. Not the best, but hey, I'm not brave enough yet to set my stop closer or my limit higher.

Two trades? I'm feeling really good. Then I did the unforgivable - I looked for a fractal on the EUR/USD. And found one.
And discovered another valley on the 4-hour chart.
This one's actually started the upswing, so there's less risk here.

Again, confirmed one more time on the daily timeframe:
So, of course, in I went. Yet another trade, but a smaller one this time given where in the pattern I am - got in at 1.4158 with a limit at 1.4220 and the stop at 1.4120. Again, an okay risk-to-reward ratio: nothing stellar, but wide enough apart to give me confidence that I am not too likely to get stopped out because of fear. And the stop is not set so far away that I am afraid to lose a ton of money.

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That was around 2 in the morning. I then obsessively watched my account head into a draw-down and finally decided that watching the trades wasn't going to get me anywhere.

The three trades:
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Analysis: Am I getting too cocky now? I took three large (for me, anyway) trades within an hour of each other. On top of that, instead of following one of the patterns that Jordan and Ty have been teaching us, I wound up setting my stops and limits based on the fractals. On the FRACTALS? Where do I get off doing that? Who's to say this will actually work? What do I know about fractals, other than that they occur all over the place in nature? I've got to be hallucinating - this has to be a fluke. Better check it out with Jordan. I guess one way of looking at is that these fractal patterns are all about spotting the meta-pivots and predicting where the next one is going to occur, based on the wholesale and retail lines (the trading range in the current trend, that is to say).

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Okay, here's the update from this morning when I woke up and watched my trades obsessively again. I'd already made a net 120-pip profit by around 6 a.m., but the totals kept jumping up and down and all around. So I kept busy until around 8 a,m. - since I was managing these trades on the 4-hour timeframe, I figured I'd see strong price action around 8 am, which should be when the next candlestick starts to form in each of these charts.

And sure enough, as the clock ticked past 8, there seemed to be frenetic buying and selling of these 3 pairs, with my net profit advancing and receding like waves on the beach ... was the tide coming in or going out? It was hard to tell. But at 8:11 a.m., my limit on the EUR/JPY dd get triggered, leaving me the proud possessor of a 92% profit on that trade (lesson learned - in the EUR/JPY, one pip does NOT equal one percentage point of the trade!), The price continued to swing up and down around the 167.00 price point, but I needed to get to work, so had no time for further analysis.

By the time I get to work (a 90-minute commute - can anyone guess why I may want to not have a day job?), the US trade balance data will have been released. I'm not sure how that will affect the prices of the two remaining USD-based currency pairs I'm currently trading. I guess I will just have to wait and watch and see what's going to happen. No matter what happens, at least it will be a learning experience. I may learn that I can trust myself to make good choices even when it's 2 a.m., or I may learn that when I'm really tired, I'm not likely to be at the top of my form.

Either one. One thing that I've learned in this past week of trading is that if I pay attention to what I am doing and am willing to put aside ego and the "need to trade", I have a MUCH better chance of success - at least this way I'm trading based on the indicators (even if I occasionally misread a signal or two) rather than based on my emotions. One step further each week!

Side note for anyone who cares: When I started trading in late July, I thought I understood some of the patterns, but I didn't. This was rapidly proven by my account eagerly dwindling to less than 40% of its original value. I've been learning lots since then. I've had to force myself to be disciplined, always trading no more than I can afford to lose. I've lost some. Had worked myself back up to 50% of the opening balance in my account, then got too confident and went back to just below 40% right before the Sept 8 Fed announcement in the US. That, and the resulting volatility (perceived, not necessarily true) kept me out of the market for almost 4 weeks. Now that I'm back in, I'm taking things a little more slowly. Trying to really understand each trade. Looking for extra confirmation with wholesale and retail lines _and_ Fibonacci retracement lines.

All of this is paying off. By the close of that EUR/JPY trade this morning, I'm back at 60% of my opening balance. Of course, it's entirely possible that the reports due to come out today will result in a downward adjustment of that balance, but at least I'm not terrified that I'll lose tremendous amounts any more (I have reasonable stops now). Better yet, even if I do lose a large portion of the account, I have the confidence that rational, disciplined trading can help me build it back up to better than before, and I'll get to be a better trader as I constantly learn from both my successes and my failures.

Happy trading!

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Further update:

By 10:30 a.m., my limit on EUR/USD had also been triggered, and I was up by 62% on that trade as well. It then proceeded to climb up to 167.40 and probably higher, before retreating all the way to 166 again! I'm not sure what happened there, but am glad I had a modest limit, even though I was regretting not having been more aggressive while it was on the upswing.

The USD/JPY initially seemed to be doing exactly as expected, doing a fairly smooth and steady rise to 117.75 or so. I was fairly confident that it would get past resistance (if any) at 118.00. However, around 2 p.m., this currency pair started to go south at a dizzying pace! It wound up going down to below 117 (remember I entered this trade at 117.22!) I was now kicking myself for not having moved my stop into profit-taking range before I left for work this morning - but then realised that such an action, while it would have protectd my small profit, would also have almost definitely resulted in me getting stopped out on a small retracement. So, it's a toss-up. BBy the time i left work, the USD/JPY had gone back to just above my entry point.

When I get home, I'll have to make the call as to whether or not I should manually close this trade. I'm tempted not to, just to see what's going on. While I'd expected the US trade data, I'd not paid any attention to the other half of this pair: the Yen! The bank of Japan made some statements ths afternoon, and I'm assuming that's what triggered the selloff in the Yen. That theory would seem to be borne out by the fact that the EUR/JPY also took that same wild ride downwards at around the same time.

I will probably stay in this trade a while longer and see how it does, given that tomorrow is a US-results day: with the PPI data being released.

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Okay, I'm home now. Convinced I want to let that trade ride a while longer: Here are the end-points of the three trades (of course, USD/JPY hasn't yet ended ...)


The bright green circles are my entry points. The golden yellow diagonal lines indicate my anticipated trajectory, and the limit got exercised just below the fat green line in the case of the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD. As you can see, the USD/JPY is still nowhere near my ideal limit.

But I'm letting it run ... let's see how it goes.

One small trade at a time ...

So, after what's seemed like a long hiatus (but hasn't really been one), Jordan taught the Forex class again last night. Got me looking at the charts more closely, and pointed out why shorting the EUR/JPY may not be such a hot idea.

So, I happily looked at the 5-minute chart on the EURJPY. Yes, you read that right. The 5-minute chart. Here it is:


As you can see, there's a distinct 3/5 ema bounce off the 13 ema, and all are well below the 200 sma. So, it looks like a good trade. Also, it's just in the 23% to 50% range of the Fibonacci retracement. So, I thought it could come up to 164.52 or so.

I know, I should have spotted a trade on the HOURLY timeframe. Let's pretend that's what I did. Really. So, this is what the Hourly timeframe looked like (at 1:00 a.m., everything makes sense to me ... brains NOT required, apparently).
Okay, that looks like it could mean anything. That's why I thought this was a shorting opportunity ... but, as Jordan pointed out, there's not rally a guarantee of that. Which is why I looked at the 5 minute, to see what's actually going on there.

And finally, to confirm on the daily:
Hmm ... look at that lovely uptrend! Okay, this looked like a nice trade to take.

So, I got in at 164.33 and put a limit at 1.52 ... a nice, small trade. Took a while, but it did actually pay off after a bit of drifting up and down.

So, that was a nice 15% profit. Yes, just take my word for it.

Then, I looked a little closer at the hourly timeframe on the EUR/JPY. Looks like we're in for a beautiful upswing. So, tried to get back in right away. Got in at 164.68 (that trended up RAPIDLY!). Set a really high target at 165.45 ... that's over a 100-pip move from my original entry at 164.33. Better yet, it's just below the Fibonacci 78.6 line at 165.50. I think there will be major resistance at 165.50, so why risk it. I have 2 entire Fib intervals of profit if I'm right.

This trade only started at about 2:49 a.m. (Yes, I lost some sleep last night.) Since I put in such a wide limit, I decided my stop also needs to be wide, otherwise, I'll get stopped out before I'm ready and before it's really moved.

Well, all day today, the EUR/JPY has been moving up and down and up and down and up and down! Sigh - very frustrating. Especially that Metastock, when I got home, had actually had a spike up to 166.20 at around 4 pm - but FxSol, my trading platform, hadn't registered that spike at all, so I didn't get my limit exercised.
Anyway, as you see in that chart, it FINALLY did actually hit 165.45 just before class started.

Whoo hooo! I did it. That would have been a 100% move for me, but remember I missed a bit of it between the two trades. So wheee - I still made over 80% profit!

I guess I am learning a little bit every single day. This is my best planned trade, even though I've seen bigger wins - they just weren't planned, rather were taking advantage of a short run-up or downturn that trended very rapidly! Had to be quick on the trigger on those other trades ... this was slow and unexpectedly relaxed!

Maybe I don't have to be a day trader all the time! I was in this trade for over 18 hours! :)

Have I lost the knack of analysis after a 3-week break?

It's been a few weeks since I last traded Forex: the anticipation of the Fed reducing the interest rate in the US gave me a headache, and I found I hadn't the stomach to play in that market. So, I took a break.

I'm back now, hopefully better able to understand and predict the emotional swings of the market!

So, today, since I really, really wanted to take a trade, I looked at one of my old standby's, the British pound - hmm, looks like the GBP/USD was just waiting for me to wake up and take a look at how much the market has moved since I last traded - this instrument is trading way higher than I remember.

So, here goes the analysis:

Hourly (trying to spot a trade):
Looks like the 10 EMA has just bounced off the 25 and 50 - a good trade entry! Also, we're just about to cross upwards into the 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci area - another very good sign there.

15-minute (confirming the parabolic SAR):
Okay, the parabolic SAR (the little dots) are indeed still indicating a bullish trend.

Daily (additional confirmation on trend):
And so is the Daily chart. All systems go! Time to pick my stop and limit.

I want to put the stop low enough to not be stopped out too easily by a minor retracement. I also don't want to test the resistance, so I'll be conversative when I set up the limit.

Okay, got into this trade at 10:01 a.m. Bought at 2.0406, with a stop at 2.0362 and a limit at 2.0425 (I think it may well trend higher, but this will be a significant profit anyway).

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Today, I was unable to watch the trade as closely or as often as I'd have liked (it was a work day again). But, at 11:36 a.m., I got email: the limit had been reached and had triggered a sale of the micromini lots I'd bought. Yay! I guess my middle name no longer needs to be stopped-out!!


Further analysis shows that I'd read the Fibonacci Retracement fairly accurately: I could have set my limit several pips higher, but I think (believe?) I knew that when I set up the limit - I'd realised that it may actually trade higher, but had set a lower profit target because I tend to get antsy. As I'd expected, it certainly didn't make it to the 78.6% Fibonacci level. I walked away with a 19-pip profit. Not so bad!

Okay, I'll be waiting eagerly for trading to resume on Sunday evening. In the meantime, I'm going to go back and re-read the class notes (haven't had class for a couple of months now, due to some upheaval in the class providers' schedules and arrangements).

Don't try to be a hero

Especially true when you analyse a trade within 5 minutes of opening your eyes after a really short (think 4 hours of sleep) night.

Why?

Because, chances are, you are not thinking clearly yet.

I had my laptop beside me when I fell asleep last night - it was, surprisingly, still there when I woke up. :) So, of course, I looked at the USD/JPY trade I'd taken last night.
Damn. Still in the trade, but negative by about 6 points - it had actually been profitable for a while, then had risen again to above where I got into the trade!

But wait, what do I see?

Aha! Says the sleep-fogged brain - I see the 3 ema cross up over the 5 and the 13. BUY NOW!!!

So, sleep-numbed fingers go: okay. I proceed to close out the overnight trade (locking in the 6 pip loss) and take a new trade: buy 10 micromini lots at 1.1587 with a stop at 1.1540 (below the 61.8% fibonacci line) and a limit at 116.30 (just below the 78.6% fibonacci line).

As soon as the trade is placed, the mists of sleep retreat a little.

You moron!!! says the rapidly awakening brain. You were supposed to manage the trade on the hourly timeframe - what timeframe is this? Umm, the 15-minute! Oops.

So, let's check the hourly. It probably says the same thing as this 15-minute chart. I'm pretty sure it does. Really.

So maybe my trade analysis skills are getting way better than when I started. But I am nowhere near good enough to trade in less than an hour after waking up. On the hourly chart, it still looks more like a short-sale opportunity than a chance to go long.

Whatever. I'm now looking to support my theory - I want to be a hero here. So I go back and look at the 15-minute timeframe again:
Weeeeeeeeeell. Double-click on the image and you'll see that it's actually trending down again! Whoooops.

Hmm, it's now gone from being a matter of heroism to an ego issue. I'm staying in this trade - let's see how it plays out. I can't keep second-guessing myself, I really need to stick to my trade plan, fuzzy as it may be (remember, I've already manually closed a trade that I'd analysed last night, no matter how bad that initial analysis was).

Off to work now. I've set up alerts on the trade so, even though I can't actually trade while at work, I'll at least know when I either get stopped out or luck out and have the limit executed instead.

Lesson not quite learned yet: Don't try to be a hero. Do your analysis. Confirm your trades. Wait for a better opportunity if the one you're looking at seems a little iffy.

Mini-lesson I just absorbed while glancing at the monitor: focus. You can't look at the timestamp on Metastock (5:50) and assume that you just made a profit of $5.50. You really need to make sure you're looking at the status bar on your trading platform before you leap to any conclusions. :) Some days, it really pays to have to whack yourself upside of the head before breakfast.




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Okay, I am officially not doing any more trades when I've just woken up, or just because I want them to succeed.
It's almost 2 hours since I placed that trade, and it lost me 25 pips before I smartened up and pulled out of it just now. :)

Lesson learned: don't do that, then. :)

Flat trading days - who'da thunk it?

Interesting lessons we learn ... I'd been watching the various currency pairs for the past three weeks and happily assuming that it was entirely representative of market activity. Boy, was I ever wrong! I have now spent the last 5 days watching the currency pairs, almost without exception - dither!

Look at the hourly charts with me:

EUR/JPY:


Here, it's only today that things have shown any sign of activity. I've probably missed the boat on that downtrend, though.

And the EUR/USD while it's showing some signs of activity, has also decided to hover in a 10-pip range between 1.355 and 1.365 since it hit intermediate support on August 28th (of course, I could be reading that wrong and it's actually a 100 pip Move):


I think I've spotted a sweet trade on the USD/JPY: On the hourly chart, it looks as though we're in for a nice little downswing to 115.45 or so.



Confirming on the 15-minute, we see that the trend is bearish and the parabolic SAR is above the candles, indicating that it should continue to head downward for a while ...

I got into this trade just now, selling 10 micro-mini lots at 115.82, with the stop at 116.10 and the stop at 115.50.

Of course, it's now 1 a.m. on the 5th, so maybe it's just tiredness that makes this look like a valid trade: I've already managed to lose 7 pips ... it's now a $6.04 loss so far on this trade ... I wonder if it will ever go back down to my target 115.5-ish range!

I'll look at it in the morning once I get a few hours of sleep. :)

Cheers,
Maya

Whee! I hit a few limits today!

Yesterday, both John Hyland and Jordan analysed the EUR/JPY trade I was in - the verdict, I'm using the Fibonacci retracement, but then I'm placing my stops too tight - I need to allow a one-range or two-range space for the trade to play out.

So last night, during class, I shorted the EUR/JPY again. Made a small, but delightful profit. This morning, I awoke to find that the EUR/JPY was now on an uptrend. Given that I had the exact same Fibonacci retracement beautifully depicted on the hourly chart, I took that trade long.

Here's the analysis:

Hourly timeframe:

I got in at the green circle at 6 a.m. : bought 10 micro-mini lots at 156.5 with a stop lower than the 0% Fibonacci line at 154.4 and a limit above the 50% line at 157.05. I should probably have trusted that the trade would continue past the 61.8% line at least, maybe even past the 78.6%, but I didn't want to take that chance, so this is the trade I took.

Voila: A few hours later, at work, I got notified that something got exercised. I checked - for a thrilling change, it was the limit, locking in a nice little profit. Of course, I could have had a nicer profit if I'd trusted my analysis, but I wasn't sure that this was not just a short retracement. In the bigger picture, I'm sure all the trading activity since Monday was nothing but a short retracement, too, but this is the timeframe I'm trading on, and I like the way this trade has worked out for me.

Of course, I'm going to keep watching this EUR/JPY currency pair on the hourly timeframe. If my analysis is correct, then, assuming the current dip is a mere retracement, we're in for another healthy uptick: all the way to almost 162.00 - that's where the 78.6% line is for the larger-scale M-to-M Fibonacci retracement on this hourly chart as you see below:




So, I'll be watching this trade this evening. If it starts to trade significantly above 159.5, then I'm going to go long this trade again and set a limit just below 162.00. Let's see whether that plays out as currently planned.

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While that is all going on, I'm also analysing the EUR/USD for a potential trade.

On the hourly timeframe, I'm seeing what looks like a nice opportunity for a kiss trade:

Unfortunately, when I tried to confirm on the 15-minute time-frame, it's got the parabolic SAR above the candlesticks, indicating a temporary down-trend:



So I guess I'm just going to sit here and watch this currency pair and wait for the parabolic SAR to tell me it's okay to go in and buy and then wait for a nice long run upward.

I hate waiting.

ARGH - Stopped out AGAIN!!!

So here I am, spotting a sweet trade on EUR/JPY .... one that should have paid off about 300 pips!

Here is the trade:

I got in at the circled spot on Monday, August 27th. It is _still_ heading down, as I'd predicted.

However, I keep getting stopped out! I've been chasing this trade since MONDAY! I get in, make a profit, move my stop up closer, and BANG!!! I'm out of the trade in a momentary upswing. I'm sick of that. Today, especially - I had an entry stop that got me in at 157.4, and anticipated a sweet run down to 154.90 - well, that run down is definitely happening right now, as you'll see if you double-click on the chart - however, as usual, I got stopped out a little after I got in. So now, late, late, late in the game, I'm finally in this trade again. Shorted 10 micro mini lots at 155.41, with a stop at 158.3 and a limit at 151.6 - I'm anticipating that it will hit 151.5 (the 78.6% mark on the Fibonacci retracement) and may still continue downward depending on how much support it meets at that Major support point.

I'm frustrated at the stopped-out-ness of this trade, but encouraged by the fact that I called it right in terms of identifying the trade!

I guess it's all part of the learning game - no point getting frustrated.

Chasing a trade

It's now just past 10:30 p.m., EDT. After a long day, I got home to check the trade. During the day, I'd been tracking it occasionally, and had raised the stop to 158.35 to lock in some profit - I did. Got stopped out on one of the upswings .... and had to watch the EUR/JPY slowly drift down exactly as predicted! Oh well ... have FAITH in the trade!

Here's what the chart looks like right now.



Okay, so I'm chasing this trade. But I do believe there is a LOT of potential for it to keep going down to the 154.8 or so that would be the 78.6% mark on the longer Fibonacci retracement. So I took the trade. Again. Shorted 5 micro-mini lots at 157.67, with a stop at 158.10 and a limit at 156.35. As it drifts down again, I'll try to push the limit lower. And this time, I'm leaving the stop untouched. No point stopping myself out of a trade that I think will work!

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Also this morning, I got a notification from FXInsights.com that they have generated a Buy signal on EUR/USD between 1.3650 and 1.3640, and again between 1.3620 and 1.3600. So now I'm curious as to what could have triggered that Buy signal of theirs. If it looks like a reasonable trade, I'm likely to get into it tomorrow.

The Daily chart is not yet showing the 10 EMA crossing over the 50 EMA or the 25 EMA, although the 25 EMA has crossed up over the 50 EMA.

On the hourly timeframe below, the indicators are actually to short this, rather than being a BUY signal. I don't think I'm understanding this trade pattern yet.

Let's look at the 15-minute timeframe:


Here, again, I'm not seeing what's causing a strong BUY signal.

So I'm going to look for the Kiss trade on these same timeframes.

Daily:

Hourly:

15-minute:



Hmm, no. I'm still not seeing why they want to buy, other than that the daily timeframe shows a distinct upswing today compared to last Friday. Is that enough reason to make FXInsights.com generate a buy signal? I don't know. Should I buy just because they say so? No. Doesn't make sense to me at all. I'll wait until I see something I recognise.

Beginning to learn the Kiss Trade

So, last week, Jordan taught the class about the Kiss trade - I've been looking for an opportunity since then, but haven't really spotted one. This morning, though, it looks like I might have an opportunity here on the EUR/JPY.

On the hourly timeframe:

On the daily timeframe:

And finally, on the 15-minute timeframe:


Adding in Fibonacci retracement lines, it looks like we could be in for a good opportunity to short this pair:

If I'm reading this right, it's indicating that this pair may head downwards in a couple of big waves: one down to the 78.6 9 (close to a green up-arrow) at 157.28, which is also clustered with the 38.2 line from the larger-scale Fibonacci retracement from 153.36 to 159.69; the second, continuing further down to 154.65, where again we have a cluster of Fibonacci lines: the 161.8 of the smaller retracement and the 78.6 of the larger one.

I'm taking this trade, even though it was only a little black downward arrow.

Why am I taking the trade? Okay, still because I want it to do well. But also, at least a little, because it looks like the Forex Profit system that Jordan was talking about, the Kiss trade. I really want to try this trade out, and I guess I'm tired of waiting for a red arrow to confirm this is a good trade. Not smart.

Zooming out on the hourly timeframe:


There is a definite red arrow there on the hourly timeframe: maybe I shouldn't be mixing and matching, but I want this trade. On the daily, it does indicate a bearish market, so I think (hope?) that it's safe to take this trade.

Note that on the hourly, it's also done a complete price pivot and has already tested the failure line and bounced off it to continue downward:

I'm getting in at market price on a short: I placed a trade to sell 10 micro-mini lots at 158.80, with a stop at 159.30 (just in case I'm wrong on the direction) and a limit above the 78.6/38.2 mark, at 157.40.

Now I'm off to work: let's see how this trade does today.