Friday, August 24, 2007

Taking a trade late in its life ... and yet, too early!

GBPUSD

Looking at the 4-hour chart, it looks like an opportunity is opening up here:

The 10 ema has just crossed up over the 25. I _want_ it to go above 50, but maybe it won’t.

The
daily also shows a nice opportunity: the SAR is below the candles right now:
Taking a look at the 15-minute time-frame:
Interesting – that blue circle is where I was wanting to get in this morning. Should I have??

I may still get in now – it’s strongly bullish yet. I think I’ll wait for it to close above resistance, then get into this trade. Why? Cause I want a winner. Not need. Not just profit. WANT. It's an ego issue, for some reason.

Note: if it closes above that resistance right now, then there is a GOOD chance it will get all the way up to the Fibonacci line at 2.00216 or so

The 15-minute chart again:

Still watching, at 9:54 p.m … started watching close to 8:30!!

If I’m going to play with the 15-minute time frame, then I really want to wait till after it tests the support and bounces back up: within a couple timeframes now:

Okay. It just finally bounced off the wholesale line. I took a small trade: bought 5 micro mini lots at 1.9954, stop at 1.9920, limit at 1.9958 – tiny profit, if any!!!

Note that all this was on the night of the 22nd - yesterday I was too busy to blog, far too busy to do any analysis or take a trade. Anyway, as soon as I took this trade, the GBP/USD started to down-tick. I'm a compulsive watcher, so I watched as it plunged about 30 pips. Forced myself to not panic, as it hadn't hit the very low stop. Then, watched with glee as it rose again ... and hovered just below where I'd bought. Finally, it crept up, up, up .... past 1.9954. So as soon as it was well above, I moved the stop up - to 1.9959. And the limit to 2.051. And went to sleep.

As usual, when I awoke on the 23rd, I found I'd been stopped out. But at least I was stopped out at a small profit rather than at the way heavier loss my original stop would have locked in.

Lesson learned: Move the stop up as soon as you can, so that you lock in a profit rather than a loss. :) If you have the time to keep watching, you can keep adjusting the stop to lock in meatier profits - but at least if you do have to sleep, you won't lose it all overnight. :)

And then when I got home yesterday, just for kicks, I looked at GBP/USD again. HAH. I was right, it had got up to 2.057 and higher. Oh well. I'm the one that moved the stop up, instead of sticking to my original trade plan.

Lesson learned: I'm confused. :) If I move the stop up, I lock in a profit, but potentially give away a much greater profit. That makes no sense. Maybe the lesson to learn is that I need to be able to dedicate more time to watching my trades. :)


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